Should we trust the Gavin Newsom recall polls showing an easy win?

Peninsula Premier Admin

NOW TO OUR COMMITMENT 20-21 COVERA. GE THERE’S EIGHT DAYS LE FT TOOT VE IN THE RECALL ELECTION. EVERY ACTIVE REGISTERED VOTER WAS MAILED A BALLO T. IT CAN BE DROPPED OFF IN-PERSON AT AN OFFICIAL POLLING PLACE OR MAILED BACK. IF YOU DO MAIL IT BACK. .. IT HAS TO BE POSTMARKED ON OR BEFORE ELECTION DAY ON SEPTEMBER 14TH. ## AS OF LAST FRIDAY, MORE THAN A QUARTER OF VOTERS HAVE ALREADY VOTED .. “POLITICAL DATA INCORPORATED” SAYS THAT’S MORE THAN FIVE- POINT-SEVEN MILLION BALLOTS. 53-PERCENT OF THOSE BALLOTS ARE FROM REGISTERED DEMOCRA. TS ABOUT 24-PERCENT ARE FROM REPUBLICANS. CANDIDATES ARE OUT ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. GOVERNOR NEWSOM WAS IN LOS ANGELES TODAY — TRYG IN TO CONVINCE PEOPLE TO VOTE “NO” ON THE RECALL. <GOVERNOR GAVIN NEWS: OM “THIS IS NOT JUST AN ATTACK ON THE CURRENT INCUMBENT GOVERNOR, THIS IS AN ATTACK ON OUR VALUES THAT HANG THINGS WE HOLD DEAR AS A STATE. CALIFORNIA HAS THE SECOND LOWEST COVID CASE RATE IN AMERICA TODAY, AMONG THE HIGHEST VACCINATION RATES IN AMERICA TODAY.”> ## THE GOVERNOR WILL NOW RETURN TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO CONTINUE CAMPAIGNING. HE WILL BE JOINED VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS LATER THIS WEEK. THE VICE PRESIDENT WILL CAMPAIGN WITH THE GOVERNOR IN THE BAY AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SHE IS THE MOST HIGH-PROFILE SUPPORTER TO APPEAR WITTHH E GOVERNOR DURING THE CAMPA. IN THE WHITE HOUSE HAS SAID THAT PRESIDENT BIDEN ALSO INTENDS TO CAMPAIGN FOR THE GOVERNOR. ONE OF THE LEADING CANDIDATES TO REPLACE THE GOVERNOR IS LARRY EL R.DE HE HELD RALLIES IN CASTAIC AND THOUSAND OAKS TODAY. DOZENS OF PEOPLE SHOWED UP TO SUPPORT THE CONSERVATIVE RADIO TALK SHOW HOS T. TODAY’S CAMPAIGN STOPS COMES AFTER SPENDING TIME IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY… WHERE HE TALKED ABOUT HIS GOALS TO FIG THTHE STATE’S OUDRGHT. <12″WHEN I GET THE A NDRE WANT TO DECLARE A PUBLIC EMERGENCY AND WATER I WANT TO RELEASE SOME OF THE SE PROJECTS THAT HAVE BEEN HELD UP.” 18> -butt to- <21″I RECOGNIZE THAT WERE HAVI NG EXTREMES AND WEATHER AND ITS ALL THE MORE REASON WHY WHEN WE DO HA VE RAINY SEASONS AND WE DO HAVE THEM WE NEED TO STORE WATER GTOET US THROUGH THE 5 TO 7 YEARS OF DROUGHT SEASON LIKE WERE HAVING RIGHT NOW.”30> DEMOCRATS FROM EVERY WING OF THE PARTY ARE PULLING OUT ALL THE STOPS TO ENSURE GOVERNOR NEWSOM KEEPS HIS JOB. AS KYUNG LAH REPORTS….NEWSOM HIMSELF IS ANGLING FOR SUPPORT FROM UNION WORKERS TO GET THE VOTES HE SO DESPERATELY NEEDS. ts ON A SLTWEERING LABOR DAY WEEKEND — CALIFORNIA GOVERN GORAVIN NEWSOM RALLIED THE FOOT SOLDIERS WHO’D FOUGHT FOR HIM BEFORE, LEANING ON ORGANIZED LABOR… TO KEEP HIM ON THE JOB. Gov. Gavin Newsom/(D) California, “We embre ac unions. We embrace social justice, racial justice, economic justice. All of those things. All of those things are at risk if we don’t turn out the vote on September 14th.” THAT’S THE LAST DAY TO VOTE IN THE REPUBLICAN-BACKED RECALL OF THE DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR. THE LOS ANGELES FEDERATION OF UNIONS SAYS IT’S SPENT TWO MILLION DOLLARS TO PROTECT NEWSOM — CALLING HALF A MILLION VOTERS. Na ts UNION MEMBER HUGO SOTO-MARTINEZ — SON OF IMMIGRANTS HAS HD ELPE KNOCK ON 60- THOUSAND DOORS IN LOS ANGELES — AIMING TO HIT 100-THOUSANDEF BORE VOTING ENDS. Hugo Soto-Martinez/Unite Here Local 11, “Organized labor has been k aey nd making sure that this becomes a deep blue state. The values of the ste at reflect the union values and those are workers, those are immigrants. Those are people who work for a paycheck in is th countr” y. Nats NATIONAL DEMOCRATS BOOSTING GOVERNOR NEWSOM THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND HE AV CALLED THE RECALL AN ATTACK ON UNIONS. FROM MASSACHUSETTES SENATOR ELIZABETH WARREN. Sen. Elizabeth Warren/(D) Massachusetts, “SEIU and to all the unions in the house!” TO MINNESOTA SENATOR AMY KLOBUCHAR. .. nats THE NEWSOM CAMPAIGN YS SA UNIONS HAVE CONTRIBUTED 14 MILLION DOLLARS TO FIGHT HIS RELL. CA A WORT IHYNVESTMENT, BELIEVES UNION WORKER SHAVON MOORE CAGE. Shavon Moore- Cage/AFCSME Local 36, “I am for Gavin Newsom and and so whatever I have to do to keep him in offi tceo keep the people empowered, I’m gonna do that. Larry Elder don’est represent everybody. He doesn’t represent all colors and all nationality. He may say he does, but his action speaks louder than words.” REPUBLICAN CHALLENGER AND CONSERVATIVE RADIO HOST LARRY ELDER HAS SLAMMED THE UNION MONEY BACKING THE GORNORVE, ESPECIALLY THE CALIFORNIA TEACHER’S ASSOCIATION. Larry Elder/(R)Gubernatorial Candidate, “The number one obstacle to school choe ic is the teacher’s union. Who’s the number one funder of my opponent? acTehers Union!” IT’S A CRITICISM THE GOVERNOR BRUSHES OFF, ESPECIALLY WITH JUST OVER A WEEK TO GO BEFORE THE ELECTION. Gov. Gavin Newsom/(D) California, “It’s about energy. It’s about boots o

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Should we trust the Gavin Newsom recall polls showing an easy win?

Two separate polls of the Gavin Newsom recall election show the governor opening up large leads in the final days of the campaign.The first, from Survey USA and the San Diego Union-Tribune, shows 51% of respondents voting “no” on the recall ballot’s first question (Shall Gavin Newsom be recalled?), with 43% voting “yes” and 6% undecided. A separate poll from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) showed Newsom leading question one by an even wider 58% to 39% margin — a 19 percentage-point lead that appears seemingly insurmountable.Of course, polls — especially ones from 2016 and beyond — that show Democrats with comfortable leads have not always been accurate. The 2020 presidential election featured a polling miss as large as the 2016 miss, and a great deal has been written on why polls seem to consistently undersample conservative voters.Rather than enter a discussion around “shy” Trump/recall voters, response rates in the work-from-home era or weighting by education, perhaps the best way to determine the reliability of the Newsom recall polls is by seeing how well Survey USA and PPIC performed in California’s last statewide election — which was less than a year ago with pollsters working under the same COVID-19 related constraints.Below is a table showing numbers from Survey USA’s final poll for the 2020 general election compared with actual results. Included are the results of four races: 1. The presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, 2. California’s Proposition 15 (raising property taxes on commercial and industrial properties), 3. California’s Proposition 16 (lifting a ban on affirmative action) and 4. California’s Proposition 22 (granting app-based transportation and delivery companies an exception to a state labor law by classifying drivers as independent contractors rather than employees).The “conservative” side for the three ballot measures are “no” on Prop. 15, “no” on Prop. 16 and “yes” on Prop. 22. Because a recall election is a special election with lower-than-expected turnout, looking at past polling on ballot measures may be more useful than polling on big-ticket, top-of-ballot races like the presidential election.Survey USA logged some massive misses on Prop. 15 and Prop. 16, largely explained by the large portion of respondents who said they were undecided. On Prop. 15, Survey USA found 49% of respondents voting “yes,” 21% voting “no” and a whopping 30% saying they were undecided. In the end, 52% of Californians voted “no” and 48% voted “yes,” so unless every single undecided voter decided to vote “no” at the last second, this constitutes a major miss.For Prop. 16, Survey USA’s polling found 40% of respondents voting “yes,” 26% voting “no” and 34% undecided. The final result was 57% voting “no” and 43% voting “yes.” Survey USA’s polling for Prop. 22, on the other hand, was fairly accurate, predicting a win of 14 percentage points (Prop. 22 passed by 17 percentage points). If we work under the assumption that Survey USA’s undecided voters consistently seem to end up taking the “conservative” side, then the recall could be a nail-biter, as Survey USA’s final recall survey shows 51% opposing the recall, 43% in support and 6% undecided.PPIC fared better than Survey USA in 2020 — but still missed on Prop. 15 and did not ask respondents about Prop. 22.If we take PPIC’s worst miss from 2020 (Prop. 15) and assume a similar eight-percentage-point miss in the recall, Newsom would still survive by 11 percentage points, as PPIC’s final recall poll shows Newsom leading by 19.Polls from earlier in the summer attempted to weight by how likely a voter is to actually cast a ballot, as Republicans have been more enthusiastic about the recall than Democrats. More recent polls show the enthusiasm gap shrinking, and given the makeup of California’s electorate (47% Democratic, 24% Republican, 23% nonaffiliated, 6% other), that’s very good news for Newsom.Additional polling, including from the Berkeley Institute of Government Studies, is expected ahead of the Sept. 14 recall election.

Two separate polls of the Gavin Newsom recall election show the governor opening up large leads in the final days of the campaign.

The first, from Survey USA and the San Diego Union-Tribune, shows 51% of respondents voting “no” on the recall ballot’s first question (Shall Gavin Newsom be recalled?), with 43% voting “yes” and 6% undecided. A separate poll from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) showed Newsom leading question one by an even wider 58% to 39% margin — a 19 percentage-point lead that appears seemingly insurmountable.

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Of course, polls — especially ones from 2016 and beyond — that show Democrats with comfortable leads have not always been accurate. The 2020 presidential election featured a polling miss as large as the 2016 miss, and a great deal has been written on why polls seem to consistently undersample conservative voters.

Rather than enter a discussion around “shy” Trump/recall voters, response rates in the work-from-home era or weighting by education, perhaps the best way to determine the reliability of the Newsom recall polls is by seeing how well Survey USA and PPIC performed in California’s last statewide election — which was less than a year ago with pollsters working under the same COVID-19 related constraints.

Below is a table showing numbers from Survey USA’s final poll for the 2020 general election compared with actual results. Included are the results of four races: 1. The presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, 2. California’s Proposition 15 (raising property taxes on commercial and industrial properties), 3. California’s Proposition 16 (lifting a ban on affirmative action) and 4. California’s Proposition 22 (granting app-based transportation and delivery companies an exception to a state labor law by classifying drivers as independent contractors rather than employees).

The “conservative” side for the three ballot measures are “no” on Prop. 15, “no” on Prop. 16 and “yes” on Prop. 22. Because a recall election is a special election with lower-than-expected turnout, looking at past polling on ballot measures may be more useful than polling on big-ticket, top-of-ballot races like the presidential election.

Survey USA logged some massive misses on Prop. 15 and Prop. 16, largely explained by the large portion of respondents who said they were undecided. On Prop. 15, Survey USA found 49% of respondents voting “yes,” 21% voting “no” and a whopping 30% saying they were undecided. In the end, 52% of Californians voted “no” and 48% voted “yes,” so unless every single undecided voter decided to vote “no” at the last second, this constitutes a major miss.

For Prop. 16, Survey USA’s polling found 40% of respondents voting “yes,” 26% voting “no” and 34% undecided. The final result was 57% voting “no” and 43% voting “yes.” Survey USA’s polling for Prop. 22, on the other hand, was fairly accurate, predicting a win of 14 percentage points (Prop. 22 passed by 17 percentage points). If we work under the assumption that Survey USA’s undecided voters consistently seem to end up taking the “conservative” side, then the recall could be a nail-biter, as Survey USA’s final recall survey shows 51% opposing the recall, 43% in support and 6% undecided.

PPIC fared better than Survey USA in 2020 — but still missed on Prop. 15 and did not ask respondents about Prop. 22.

If we take PPIC’s worst miss from 2020 (Prop. 15) and assume a similar eight-percentage-point miss in the recall, Newsom would still survive by 11 percentage points, as PPIC’s final recall poll shows Newsom leading by 19.

Polls from earlier in the summer attempted to weight by how likely a voter is to actually cast a ballot, as Republicans have been more enthusiastic about the recall than Democrats. More recent polls show the enthusiasm gap shrinking, and given the makeup of California’s electorate (47% Democratic, 24% Republican, 23% nonaffiliated, 6% other), that’s very good news for Newsom.

Additional polling, including from the Berkeley Institute of Government Studies, is expected ahead of the Sept. 14 recall election.

Contributed by local news sources

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